Features
GREM consists of a group
of equations concerning the interrelationship between regional
and national economic system. These relationships can be distinguished
in:
- behavioural equations;
- identities.
The behavioural equations describe the behaviour of an endogenous
variable depending on the state other endogenous and/or exogenous
variables. The identities are exact relationship between variables
and they not require the estimation of unknown parameters.
The identities are however essential in order to solve the
model.
The relationships of the model could be grouped in 3 blocks
concerning specific economic topics such as:
- the goods market;
- the labour market;
- incomes, wages and prices.
The interrelationships between the blocks and the economic
entities considered by the model are scheduled in Figure 1.
Exogenous variables (out of the coloured panels) are distinguished
in regional (dark blue box) and national/international (light
blue box).
Figure 1 |
GREM is in continuous development;
the actual version is based on annual data and on a low disaggregation
level of the macroeconomic components. Some following extensions
of the model are however foreseen, both in terms of the observations
frequency, from annual to quarterly data, and in terms of
spatial and sectorial disaggregation.
Actually we are working on an higher disaggregation of consumptions,
value added and labour market equations and also on the quarterly
model. Consequently, the model dimension and complexity will
increase together with the possible interpretations and the
results utility, both in the regional economic structure analysis
and for the projections on the alternative scenarios.
GREM in founded on a annual dataset
and its framework could become specific for each Italian region.
However, personalized specifications and ad hoc extensions
of the model could be required by each user.
The forecasts is provided on the basis of two scenarios for
the exogenous variables, proposed by GRETA Associati, but
alternative scenarios could be suggested and designed directly
by the user.
GREM is developed for Eviews.
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